CBI: In your studies, you've noted that the number of frequent committed exercisers hasn't increased appreciably for years, and that, as a percentage of population, they've actually declined. What does that suggest?
Harvey Lauer: Around 1990, the fitness movement reached a plateau, and we've been sitting on it ever since. The world operates in cycles, and progress with respect to any particular phenomenon is never a straight 45° uptrend. Reality is a jagged graph line, with untidy fits and starts, ups and downs.
CBI: You've also reported, however, that between 1990 and 2001, the number of health club members in the U.S. has shot from 20.7 million to 33.8 million, a dramatic 63% increase. How do you explain that?
HL: I've been saying for years that the fitness industry is shaped by a simple, but monumental, tenet—the pleasure principle. Nearly all human behavior, in fact, is driven by our desire to avoid pain and maximize pleasure. While exercise offers intrinsic, undeniable, benefits, for most people, it is also inherently painful, boring, inconvenient, or otherwise unpleasant. In order to succeed at exercise, people require outside motivation, discipline, know-how, and even a little handholding. They know it, and fitness professionals know it, and this is why health clubs and personal trainers have been able to thrive despite a lackluster fitness environment.
CBI: Have people's attitudes towards clubs changed significantly over the past 5-10 years? To what extent do you expect them to change during the coming decade?
HL: Some of the negative stereotypes haven't changed: 'Clubs are overcrowded . . . Clubs are pick-up places . . . Salesmen are pushy,' and so forth. Those things, unfortunately, haven't changed. But there are also positive perceptions that remain constant: 'Clubs provide expertise and motivation that you can't obtain on your own . . . Clubs provide a valuable service to the community,' etc. What is changing is the unspoken personal acceptance of clubs. This is reflected in silent attitudes, which hold something like, 'A health club is a place for me . . . There are people here just like me . . . I could do that . . . This could work for me.'
CBI: Your studies, among others, confirm that most people now recognize the value of regular exercise, but most don't put that belief into practice. When, if at all, will we reach the turning point—when Americans' attitudes about the value of exercise begin to coincide with their actual behavior?
HL: Behavior already coincides with attitudes—but only to the tune of about 20% of the population. More than 80% of Americans are already persuaded that physical activity is very important, but only about 20% get enough exercise. It's a gradual evolutionary process. Maybe it'll take another 50 years . . . but it won't happen overnight, with the fall of an axe or the pushing of a button.
CBI: Is there any possibility that it will never happen? Given what seems to be a monumental shift towards obesity, is it conceivable that our standards about what is normal and acceptable will change? That ‘heavy' will be in? That club members will become a distinct minority, a fitness elite?
HL: No. There are at least three competing scenarios, but I don't think any one will ever win the day. (1) There's the possibility that the pharmaceutical companies will develop a magic pill that prevents weight gain, addresses every health need, etc., and negates any reason to exercise. But that's an unrealistic scenario, because more and more people will exercise for the intrinsic rewards—to feel better afterward, to become stronger or more confident, to get in better shape, etc. (2) The 'fat and fit philosophy' that's emerged recently isn't a threat because it still requires that the overweight person be fit. (3) Club members a new fitness elite? No way! Half of club members are what our segmentation studies refer to as Consciousness III, or 'Uninitiated Believers'—people who believe in fitness, but still don't get enough exercise. It's also important to remember that many club members aren't elite exercisers; while the average member attends the club 92 days a year, nearly half visit the club fewer than 52 times—less than once a week. Today's club member isn't the young hardbody or muscle-bound jock of the 70's or 80's; in many cases, they're older, overweight, unathletic, and intimidated. Hardly a 'fitness elite.'
CBI: Some of the most important insights provided by your studies have to do with those segments, the four different levels of ‘fitness consciousness' that quantify people's readiness to exercise. Why is it important that clubs understand these stages?
HL: First, as you're aware, there's Consciousness I, or the ‘Nonbelievers.' This prehistoric race constitutes only 2% of the population and will soon be extinct. Consciousness II, which we've labeled ‘Indifferent,' accounts for 16%, and is a bit more evolved, but not by much. Neither group is important in terms of the marketing of fitness-related products.
Consciousness III, representing 63%, is clearly the most important marketing target for clubs. These ‘Uninitiated Believers' are already convinced of the virtues of fitness, and are ready to join, but many feel that they're unhealthy, overweight, and/or unathletic, and may be self-conscious about their bodies. They need to be lured with marketing strategies that are built around these psychographics.
Consciousness IV is the ‘Hard-Core' fitness participant, who makes up 17% of the population. Many of them are already club customers, and many others are committed to nonclub fitness activities, and not easily induced to switch to a club membership.
CBI: One of your fans has observed that this segmentation ‘has clear implications in terms of where the low-hanging fruit for our industry is with respect to new members.'
HL: ‘Low-hanging fruit' is an outstanding metaphor. From the perspective of our psychographic segmentation, Consciousness III, or the ‘Uninitiated Believers,' represent the low-hanging fruit—ripe and easy picking! At 128 million strong, they're by far the largest marketing target, and 73 million don't have a club affiliation or a fitness interest that would compete with belonging to a club.
Again, Consciousness IV is the ‘Hard-Core' fitness participant, but most of this fruit has already been harvested, and the remainder hangs a lot higher in the tree—some of it out of reach. This is because 63% are already club patrons or members, and 26% are frequent fitness participants who are committed to exercising out-of-doors or at home. It's probably not wise to try to convert people of other faiths.
Another example of low-hanging fruit is the huge number of nonmember patrons, a group that now includes about 25 million. These club users don't have memberships, but pay a daily fee, purchase a particular program, or make use of some other nondues arrangement, and, because of their current club experience, present a very high conversion potential.
CBI: If Consciousness III is, in fact, the most promising growth segment, what would you suggest that clubs do to reach them effectively?
HL: If you want to recruit Consciousness III, don't focus on conversion; in spirit, these people are already in the fold. Their attitudes have already changed, and all we have to do is help them change their behavior. Focus on everyday operational incentives, particularly less threatening exercise environments—for instance, dress codes, same-gender facilities, mirrorless settings, less demanding forms of exercise, user-friendly equipment, fitness pampering, and special handholding. It also wouldn't hurt to tell them that, in conjunction with reasonable eating and other healthy habits, exercise really works.
CBI: Your newest report, A Comprehensive Study of American Attitudes Toward Fitness and Health Clubs, notes that nearly nine out of every 10 Americans now believe that regular exercise is essential to weight management. Is this realization making a difference?
HL: Absolutely. People have become less enchanted with dieting as a way to lose weight because it's not a permanent remedy. I think they're also becoming less enamored of diet pills, appetite suppressants, and other passive forms of weight control. If 88% of Americans believe that 'regular exercise is essential to weight management'—that says it all.
CBI: However, as you point out, health clubs are the fourth-most-popular way to lose weight, with 22 million adult participants, trailing far behind better eating habits (100 million), outdoor exercise (48 million), and home exercise (47 million). Why aren't clubs at the top of the list?
HL: You're right. Of the 59 million health club patrons—both members and nonmembers—only about 22 million utilize clubs to lose weight. Weight loss isn't the principal motive for purchasing a club membership. What clubs can do to improve their ranking is to emphasize that working out in a health club is the most effective way to lose weight—a fact that's been documented, for the first time ever, in this new research. They should also stress the fact that the superior results provided by a club far outweigh the perceived inconvenience and imagined higher costs involved when compared with other exercise regimens. I spent most of the 1980s running and taking showers, and I can tell you that five pair of running shoes a year, 3-4 magazine subscriptions, race fees, diet supplements, and traveling to the Boston, London, Marine Corps, and other marathons cost at least as much as a club membership.
CBI: Another important finding: your Comprehensive Study concludes that ‘The health club experience, for whatever yet undefined reasons, provides superior weight-loss results.' Any idea what those ‘undefined reasons' might be?
HL: ‘Undefined reasons' are hard to define, but I think that the health club experience produces some ineffable combination of factors that add up to a superior commitment. It's probably a collection of motivational influences—peer pressure, being on public display, the additional discipline imposed by the club environment, and, most certainly, the role of trainers and the other assistance that's available.
CBI: The industry goal of 50 million members in the U.S. by 2010 is one that some observers regard as inevitable without any major changes or initiatives, but that others regard as challenging. What's your view?
HL: Achieving 50 million members by 2010 requires only a compound annual growth rate of 4%-5% for the next seven years. Many say it will be a walk-through . . . but when it comes to betting on a sure thing, I like to keep my money in my pocket.
CBI: Okay, so you're not a betting man, but what advice would you offer the club industry about how to achieve 50 million members by 2010?
HL: I think what would easily put them over the top is a unified industry campaign that speaks with a single voice. Not one that proselytizes or preaches to the choir about the virtues of physical fitness, because your prospects are already believers, but, rather, a powerful series of messages that emphasize the functional, pragmatic, aspects of the club experience—aimed squarely at Consciousness III. They're nearly ready to take the plunge, but many are still a little bit nervous about the details. Your advertising and marketing messages should stress that clubs are fun places, with light weights, user-friendly equipment, and weight-loss classes, where they'll meet people just like themselves.
From an operational point of view, clubs should cater to an older population by providing an older staff, appropriate equipment, relevant classes, such as mind/body and weight control, and less taxing programs, such as yoga and Pilates. But, at the same time, don't forget your roots—the traditional health club member; the 18-34-year-old hardbody still constitutes 36% of the commercial club population.
CBI: Industry leaders are constantly talking about the 13%-14% of the population that belongs to clubs, suggesting that they regard the other 86%-87% as prospects. How realistic a notion is that? What would a realistic penetration rate for the U.S. be?
HL: Good question. I certainly don't think that the reciprocal 86% of nonmembers represents a realistic universe of prospects. Here's a seat-of-the-pants estimate: There are 207 million adults in the U.S. Let's guess that 30 million are very old, disabled, or otherwise incapable of much in the way of physical activity. Let's also guess that, at the moment, another 50 million are incorrigible couch potatoes, even though some of them may be Consciousness III. Another 35 million may be frequent exercisers who don't utilize a club, and over 30 million are already club members. That would leave around 60 million, or 30%-35% of the adult population, as a more reasonable universe of prospects.
CBI: We noticed that your client list doesn't include any club companies. How can club owners do a better job of mining and leveraging the sort of statistical information that you provide?
HL: The Comprehensive Study, the report that we've been talking about here, is probably the most ‘actionable' research report we've ever produced. In order to sell products in any market, you need to define that market—demographically, geographically, psychographically, and by other methods of segmentation. We've sliced, diced, and trended the health club market in so many ways that I can't even remember them all. The immediate future of the health club industry is Consciousness III—anyone who's involved in this business needs to know who these people are and what they're thinking. Because of this particular report, for instance, club owners can now advertise—with confidence and scientific support—that club members are more successful than nonmembers with their weight-loss efforts. For the first time ever, ASD has proved it. That's huge!
CBI: If you were to plot the principal metrics that you follow for health clubs for, say, the past 10 years, what would we see—in terms of number of clubs, total number of members, number of frequent exercisers, etc.?
HL: As a charter member, in 1967, of the World Future Society, I was once very interested in futuristic prediction: I was fond of saying that the long-range future is easier to forecast than the near-term. My standard prophecy: 'In the fitness utopia of 2050, every able-bodied American works out every day; and those who don't are social outcasts—like the rare misfits who didn't brush their teeth every day back in 2003.' Over the next 5-10 years? Well, that's a little more difficult. As I said before, I'll keep my money in my pocket.
Bradley A. Keeny is the associate editor of CBI and can be reached at b.keeny at fit-etc.com.
